大气循环模式的变化对极端温度趋势的贡献
Daniel E Horton1, Nathaniel C Johnson2, Deepti Singh3
11] Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305, USA [2] Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305, USA.
Nature
|June 26, 2015
概括
大气循环模式的变化与极端天气事件有关. 这项研究确定了循环中的重要趋势,解释了北半球观察到的一些极端温度.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 表面天气受大规模大气循环的影响.
- 对大气循环长期变化的观察证据是不确定的.
- 极端天气事件增加了,假设将它们与循环变化联系起来.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定大气循环模式的统计学意义上的趋势.
- 确定这些趋势是否解释了表面温度极端的观察到变化.
- 为了研究循环变化对北半球中度极端温度的影响.
主要方法:
- 用自组织地图 (SOM) 集群分析来检测循环模式.
- 分析涵盖了卫星观测时代 (1979-2013) 和最近的时期 (1990-2013).
- 循环模式的趋势与表面温度极端的趋势相关.
主要成果:
- 在几个中度地区发现了大气循环模式的统计学意义上的趋势.
- 增加的反气旋循环趋势与欧亚大陆和北美地区 (夏季/秋季) 的极端高温相关.
- 越来越多的北流趋势与中亚 (冬季) 的极端寒冷相关.
结论:
- 观察到的极端温度变化部分是由区域循环模式趋势解释的.
- 虽然热力学起着作用,但循环频率,持续性和持续时间的变化也会改变极端温度的风险.
- 这项研究提供了大气循环变化和极端温度事件之间的联系的证据.
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