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一个经过模型测试的北大西洋振荡在过去一千年的重建
Pablo Ortega1, Flavio Lehner2, Didier Swingedouw3
1LSCE/IPSL, UMR 8212 (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette 91191, France.
Nature
|July 3, 2015
概括
这项研究提出了北大西洋振荡 (NAO) 的新千年重建,挑战了中世纪时期持久的积极NAO的先前发现. 新的重建显示了13世纪和14世纪的优势阳性NAO阶段,以及与火山爆发的联系.
科学领域:
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候动力学 气候动力学
背景情况:
- 北大西洋振荡 (NAO) 显著影响北半球气候,并影响农业和水资源管理等关键部门.
- 评估长期的NAO变化对于理解气候可预测性至关重要,但过去的重建仍在争论中.
- 之前的研究表明,中世纪期间持续的阳性NAO与欧洲更温暖的条件有关,但这是有争议的.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个更强大的,每年解决的北大西洋振荡 (NAO) 的重建,跨越过去的千年.
- 重新评估NAO的低频变性,特别是在中世纪时期.
- 调查火山喷发和随后的NAO阶段之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 汇编了大西洋地区每年解决的48个代理记录.
- 开发一组用于NAO重建的多变量回归模型.
- 根据过去一千年的六次气候模拟验证重建.
主要成果:
- 新的NAO重建表现优于以前的双代理指数.
- 在中世纪期间,没有发现持续的积极的NAO条件.
- 积极的NAO阶段在13世纪和14世纪占主导地位.
- 在大火山爆发两年后,观察到NAO的积极反应.
结论:
- 中世纪时期没有经历持续的积极北大西洋振荡 (NAO) 条件.
- 13和14世纪的特点是占主导地位的积极NAO阶段.
- 火山爆发之后,在两年内会出现积极的NAO阶段,与模型和观测数据保持一致.
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