数字天气预报的平静革命
Peter Bauer1, Alan Thorpe1, Gilbert Brunet2
1European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, UK.
Nature
|September 4, 2015
概括
随着科学技术的逐步发展, 数字天气预报 (NWP) 已经然改变了天气预报. 它的深度冲击与复杂的模拟相美,
科学领域:
- 物理科学
- 大气科学
- 计算科学
背景情况:
- 数字天气预报 (NWP) 由于持续的科学和技术进步而取得了重大进展.
- 虽然这些进步并不总是与物理学的重大突破有关,但它们对预测产生了深远的影响.
- NWP是一个复杂的计算挑战,
研究的目的:
- 突出数字天气预报的重要,但经常被低估的影响.
- 将NWP视为物理科学和计算建模的重大成就.
- 为了强调全球天气预报的日常运营重要性.
主要方法:
- 在气象学和大气物理学上积累了数十年的科学知识.
- 实施复杂的大气模型的先进计算技术.
- 在全球主要运营中心利用高性能计算资源.
主要成果:
- 在天气预报准确性和可靠性方面取得了实质性改进.
- 建立了NWP作为理解和预测天气模式的重要工具.
- 实现了全球天气预测的复杂性与模拟人类大脑或早期宇宙相比.
结论:
- 数字天气预报代表了预报科学中的"静革命".
- NWP的影响在物理科学的任何领域中都是最大的.
- 全球天气预报是一项全球范围内每天进行的大规模计算.
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