2025年全球和区域过早心血管死亡率的估计
Gregory A Roth1, Grant Nguyen2, Mohammad H Forouzanfar2
1From Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (G.A.R.), and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (G.N., M.H.F., A.H.M., M.N., C.J.L.M.), University of Washington, Seattle. rothg@uw.edu.
到2025年实现全球心血管疾病 (CVD) 风险因素目标可以显著减少心血管疾病的过早死亡. 然而,不同区域的影响凸显了实现联合国目标的定制战略的必要性.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生
- 流行病学
- 心血管疾病研究
背景情况:
- 联合国成员国承诺到2025年将早发性心血管疾病 (CVD) 的死亡率减少25%.
- 已经制定了对心脏病风险因素的全球目标来指导这一努力.
- 本研究估计了实现这些风险因子目标对全球不同地区和国家的心脏病死亡率的影响.
研究的目的:
- 为188个国家预测到2025年的心血管疾病 (CVD) 死亡率.
- 通过实现联合国风险因素目标,量化早期心脏病死亡的潜在减少.
- 分析风险因子降低对心脏病死亡率的影响的区域和性别特异性.
主要方法:
- 使用了2013年全球疾病负担研究的数据,包括死亡率,危险因素流行率和相对风险.
- 将心血管疾病死亡率 (1990-2013) 分类为因高血压,吸烟,糖尿病和肥胖而导致的死亡.
- 预计到2025年的风险因素趋势,并构建了针对心脏病死亡率的反事实场景,考虑到共同的风险因素影响.
主要成果:
- 如果目前的趋势继续下去,预计到2025年, 心血管疾病将导致780万个过早死亡.
- 实现风险因素目标可以将全球心脏病过早死亡人数减少到570万人 (男性减少26%,女性减少23%).
- 降低高血压的影响最大,其次是烟草 (男性) 和肥胖 (女性),区域差异很大.
结论:
- 联合国的目标是到2025年将心脏病死亡率降低25%,
- 所有地区可能需要更雄心勃勃的风险因素目标来实现目标.
- 没有降低风险因素, 许多国家将面临停滞或过早死亡率的增加.
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