全球变暖对春季叶子展开的现象的影响
Yongshuo H Fu1,2, Hongfang Zhao1, Shilong Piao1,3,4
1Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
Nature
|September 30, 2015
概括
气候变暖导致树木的春季叶子更早地展开. 然而,冬季降温减缓了这一进展,温度反应 (ST) 从1980年到2013年减少了40%.
科学领域:
- 生态学
- 植物现象学
- 气候变化生物学
背景情况:
- 植物因气候变暖而表现出更早的春季叶子展开.
- 落叶树需要在冬季冷却以释放休眠状态,而变暖可能会减少这种冷却效应.
- 之前的证据将降低的冷却与变化的表观学联系在一起,仅限于受控环境.
研究的目的:
- 研究欧洲主要树种对气候变暖的叶子展开的现场反应.
- 确定冬季降温是否会影响春季现象的发展速度.
- 评估叶子展开的温度敏感性的长期趋势.
主要方法:
- 采用了七种欧洲树种的长期实地观测数据.
- 分析了从1980年到2013年的1245个监测站点的数据.
- 使用基于冷却的现象模型来模拟和与观察到的趋势进行比较.
主要成果:
- 在所有监测的树种中,叶子展开的温度敏感性 (ST) 从1980年到2013年显著下降了40%.
- 观察到的ST从4.0天/°C (1980-1994) 减少到2.3天/°C (1999-2013).
- 现象学模型模拟了较弱的下降 (24-30%),表明除了降低冷却,可能还涉及光周期限制的因素.
结论:
- 经验证据证实欧洲树木春季叶子的温度敏感性正在下降.
- 降低冬季冷却可能是其中的一个因素,但其他机制也可能起作用.
- 未来的冬季变暖可能会进一步降低温度敏感性,导致树木春季表观进步放缓.
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