印度太平洋红树林对海平面上升的脆弱性
Catherine E Lovelock1,2, Donald R Cahoon3, Daniel A Friess4
1School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane 4072, Australia.
Nature
|October 16, 2015
概括
红树林通过沉积物来对抗海平面上升. 但印度太平洋的沉积物供应量下降,
科学领域:
- 沿海生态
- 气候变化科学
- 地形学
背景情况:
- 像红树林这样的沿海生态系统至关重要,
- 红树林可以通过垂直沉积来适应海平面上升.
- 由于大建设等人类活动, 印度太平洋红树林的沉积物供应正在减少.
研究的目的:
- 分析印度-太平洋地区红树林面积升高的趋势.
- 评估红树林能够跟上海平面上升的步伐.
- 基于沉积物可用性和海平面上升预测,对未来的红树林洪水风险进行建模.
主要方法:
- 采用了表面升高表 (SET) 仪器网络的数据来测量红树林土壤表面升高变化.
- 分析了印度-太平洋地区红树林升高动态的最新趋势.
- 开发了一个预测模型,整合了关于潮范围,沉积物供应和海拔变化的现场数据.
主要成果:
- 对于树来说, 沉积物可用性至关重要,
- 在69%的研究地点,目前的海平面上升率超过了红树林土壤表面的升高.
- 模型预测显示,到2070年,低潮区和沉积物供应地区的红树林可能会淹没.
结论:
- 许多印度太平洋红树林目前无法跟上海平面上升的步伐,
- 未来海平面上升对脆弱的红树林生态系统构成严重的淹没风险.
- 保护战略应侧重于保持沉积物流,以支持红树林的弹性.
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