南极多千年来对未来海平面上升的承诺
N R Golledge1,2, D E Kowalewski3, T R Naish1,2
1Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington 6140, New Zealand.
Nature
|October 16, 2015
概括
全球气候变暖超过1.5~2°C就有可能导致南极冰盖不可逆转的崩,海平面上升. 为了防止长期的冰损失,将排放限制为RCP 2.6至关重要.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 冰川学
- 海平面上升研究
背景情况:
- 预计大气变暖将增加全球平均表面温度.
- 冰盖对气候变暖的反应时间比大气或海洋更长.
- 量化冰盖对海平面上升的贡献是一项挑战.
研究的目的:
- 模拟南极冰层对气候变化的反应.
- 评估冰架崩对海平面上升的影响.
- 确定防止不可逆转的南极冰的排放门.
主要方法:
- 使用结合的冰盖/冰架模型.
- 模拟了南极冰盖对四个代表性度路径 (RCP) 的反应.
- 分析了百年至千年的冰盖动态.
主要成果:
- 超过1.5~2°C的升温会导致南极冰架崩并增加粘性流.
- 这种崩使南极冰层长期受到海平面上升的影响.
- 只有以RCP 2.6为限的排放才能防止南极冰的大量流失.
结论:
- 未来几十年的温室气体排放将决定南极洲对海平面上升的未来贡献.
- 较高的排放场景 (高于RCP 2.6) 预计到2300年,由于南极冰层的消失,海平面上升0.6-3米.
- 为了缓解南极冰层融化造成的严重长期海平面上升,迫切需要减少排放.
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