1996年至2012年中国2851个县的5岁以下死亡率:中国实现千年发展目标4项目标的地方评估
Yanping Wang1, Xiaohong Li2, Maigeng Zhou1
1National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Lancet (London, England)
|October 30, 2015
概括
中国在减少5岁以下死亡率方面取得了非凡的成功,许多地区超过了千年发展目标4的目标. 公共政策和社会经济进步是这些快速下降的主要驱动力.
科学领域:
- 人口统计
- 公共卫生
- 全球健康
背景情况:
- 在过去的20年中,中国的5岁以下死亡率大幅下降.
- 实现千年发展目标 (MDG) 4 的地方进展尚未得到充分量化.
研究的目的:
- 估计1970年至2012年中国大陆的5岁以下死亡率.
- 在减少儿童死亡率方面量化地方进展.
主要方法:
- 使用人口普查,调查和监测数据进行省级和县级估计.
- 使用小区域死亡率估计,时空平滑和高斯过程回归.
- 使用计量经济学模型分析收入和教育的进步,并计算不平等的吉尼系数.
主要成果:
- 在2012年,省级5岁以下的死亡率从5岁高于孟加拉国.
- 29个省份超过了千年发展目标4的减少率;大多数县的下降速度超过预期.
- 母亲教育和经济增长的改善有显著的贡献;在各族群中观察到快速减少.
结论:
- 中国减少5岁以下的死亡率是一个非凡的成功.
- 可以实现超过8.8%的下降率 (是千年发展目标4的两倍).
- 公共政策与社会经济进步紧密相连,
相关概念视频
Life Tables
654
A life table is a statistical tool that summarizes the mortality and survival patterns of a population, providing detailed insights into the likelihood of survival or death across different age intervals within a cohort. By organizing data on survival probabilities and mortality rates, life tables offer a clear snapshot of population dynamics over time. They are extensively used in demography, public health, actuarial science, and ecology to analyze life expectancy, design health interventions,...
654
Relative Risk
2.5K
Relative risk (RR) is a statistical measure commonly used in epidemiology to compare the likelihood of a particular event occurring between two groups. This metric is important for evaluating the relationship between exposure to a specific risk factor and the probability of a particular outcome. It plays a crucial role in medical research, public health studies, and risk assessment. Relative risk quantifies how much more (or less) likely an event is to occur in an exposed group compared to an...
2.5K
Methods Of Healthcare Delivery System
4.3K
At the different levels of the healthcare system, we see varying methods of healthcare used. These methods include managed care systems, case management, and primary healthcare.
Managed Care System:
The managed care system is designed to control the cost while maintaining the quality of care. The patient's care from admission to discharge is planned by the primary care provider or the case manager, also known as the gatekeeper. In a managed care system, the number of care providers is...
Managed Care System:
The managed care system is designed to control the cost while maintaining the quality of care. The patient's care from admission to discharge is planned by the primary care provider or the case manager, also known as the gatekeeper. In a managed care system, the number of care providers is...
4.3K
Applications of Life Tables
416
Life tables are versatile across various fields, providing a quantitative basis for analyzing mortality and survival rates. Whether used by demographers, actuaries, epidemiologists, or sociologists, life tables offer valuable insights into the dynamics of life and death, facilitating informed decisions in public health, insurance, conservation, and beyond. Their broad applicability highlights the interconnectedness of demographic data with practical outcomes in everyday life and strategic...
416
Hazard Rate
509
The hazard rate, also known as the hazard function or failure rate, is a statistical measure used to describe the instantaneous rate at which an event occurs, given that the event has not yet happened. From a probabilistic perspective, it represents the likelihood that a subject will experience the event in a very small time interval, conditional on surviving up to the beginning of that interval. In terms of frequency, the hazard rate can be viewed as the ratio of the number of events to the...
509
Cancer Survival Analysis
831
Cancer survival analysis focuses on quantifying and interpreting the time from a key starting point, such as diagnosis or the initiation of treatment, to a specific endpoint, such as remission or death. This analysis provides critical insights into treatment effectiveness and factors that influence patient outcomes, helping to shape clinical decisions and guide prognostic evaluations. A cornerstone of oncology research, survival analysis tackles the challenges of skewed, non-normally...
831

