澳大利亚"自由选择"经济增长和环境压力下降
Steve Hatfield-Dodds1, Heinz Schandl1, Philip D Adams2
1CSIRO, Black Mountain Laboratories, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia.
Nature
|November 6, 2015
概括
经济增长可以脱离环境损害, 但需要政策改革和技术激励. 澳大利亚的可持续繁荣可以通过有意识的政策选择来实现, 而不是自动的技术修复或价值转变.
科学领域:
- 生态经济学
- 环境科学
- 可持续发展
背景情况:
- 几个世纪的经济增长给生态系统带来了巨大的压力.
- 关于将经济发展与环境可持续性协调,包括技术乐观,政策改革和社会价值转变,存在不同的观点.
研究的目的:
- 在人口增长和生活水平上升的背景下,
- 分析经济和环境结果脱的可能性.
主要方法:
- 综合分析能源 - 水 - 食品的联系.
- 评估农村土地使用,生物多样性,物质流动和气候变化影响.
- 根据不同的政策和社会假设来预测环境绩效的场景建模.
主要成果:
- 经济增长预计将在所有情景中保持强.
- 环境性能差异很大,到2050年可能出现显著的压力增加,稳定或明显下降.
- 经济增长和环境压力的脱是可能的,但不是自动的,也不仅仅取决于价值变化.
结论:
- 目前的政策扩展,利用技术和减少压力的激励措施是环境绩效的关键驱动因素.
- 澳大利亚可以通过实施战略政策来实现可持续繁荣.
- 积极的政策选择对于环境改善和经济发展至关重要.
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