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由观测所限制的南极冰盖不稳定性导致的海平面上升

Catherine Ritz^1,2, Tamsin L Edwards^3,4, Gaël Durand^1,2

¹CNRS, LGGE, F-38041 Grenoble, France.

|November 19, 2015

概括

南极海冰层的不稳定性可能会导致海平面上升. 这项研究预计到2100年将达到30厘米,到2200年将达到72厘米,

科学领域:

冰川学
气候科学
海洋学

背景情况:

南极冰盖的不稳定性,特别是海洋冰盖的不稳定性,对全球海平面构成重大威胁.
阿蒙森海湾 (ASE) 是一个具有大量冰块的关键区域,显示出MISI的迹象.
对海平面上升的冰盖贡献的准确预测对于适应气候变化至关重要.

研究的目的:

预测到2100年和2200年南极冰层对全球海平面上升的潜在影响.
评估这些海平面贡献的不确定性和概率分布.
通过现有模型评估上限海平面上升估计的可信性.

主要方法:

使用基于过程的统计建模方法来模拟冰盖动态.
根据A1B气候场景预测的触发因素,对MISI风险进行了综合评估.
通过在阿蒙森海湾观察到的冰损失进行校准.

主要成果:

南极冰盖预计在2100年达到海平面相当的30厘米,在2200年达到72厘米 (95%量子).
确定了海平面贡献的复杂,倾斜的概率分布,在2100年为10厘米,在2200年为49厘米/6厘米.
发现物理约束和模型校准限制了最大可信的海平面贡献,使得一些更高的估计不可信.

结论:

南极冰盖对海平面上升的贡献很大,但可能在预测范围内,不超过更高的推测估计.
基底摩擦的不确定性显著影响预测,非线性关系有利于更高的贡献.
目前对物理机制和触发因素的理解表明,极端海平面上升的场景可能不太可能发生.

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