关于"大西洋和太平洋多十年振荡和北半球温度"的评论
S Kravtsov1, M G Wyatt2, J A Curry3
1Department of Mathematical Sciences, Atmospheric Science group, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Post Office Box 413, Milwaukee, WI 53201, USA. kravtsov@uwm.edu.
概括
多模型组合手段可能无法提供公正的气候应对估计. 调整尺度的方法可能有缺陷,其余变化通常反映了实际的强制气候反应,而不仅仅是内部噪音.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 气候模型
背景情况:
- 多模型组合手段用于估计强制性气候反应.
- 之前的工作建议重新调整整体,提供无偏见的估计.
研究的目的:
- 批判性地评估用于证明无偏见的气候应对估计的方法.
- 在气候模型模拟中调查剩余变化的性质.
主要方法:
- 对重新缩放的多模型组合平均时间序列的分析.
- 在单个模型模拟中检查剩余的内在变异性.
主要成果:
- 证明不偏见估计的程序有缺陷.
- 剩余的可变性主要是由模型的实际强制反应.
- 整体平均时间序列可能不准确地表示强制气候信号.
结论:
- 通过重新缩放组合手段进行公正气候应对估计的断言受到质疑.
- 在气候模型分析中对剩余变量的解释需要重新评估.
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