对水文循环强化的观测辐射约束
Anthony M DeAngelis1, Xin Qu1, Mark D Zelinka2
1Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095, USA.
Nature
|December 15, 2015
概括
由于太阳吸收的表现不准确, 气候模型高估了降水增加. 改善这些模型可以将未来降水预测的不确定性降低35%.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 大气物理
- 水文学
背景情况:
- 水文循环的加剧是气候变化的关键因素,对人类社会和自然生态系统产生重大影响.
- 水文循环强化的关键指标是全球平均降水相对于表面变暖的增加,在气候模型中显示出三倍的变化 (每克尔文1-3%).
- 大气辐射相互作用是这种模型不确定性的潜在来源.
研究的目的:
- 研究大气辐射相互作用在气候模型预测水文循环强化的不确定性中的作用.
- 确定模型是否低估了太阳吸收对大气水蒸气的敏感性及其对降水量预测的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用气候模型分析太阳吸收,大气水蒸气和降水之间的关系.
- 检查模型之间的辐射转移参数的差异,以了解它们对模型传播的影响.
主要成果:
- 气候模型往往低估了由于大气加湿而导致的太阳吸收增加,导致降水增加的高估.
- 由于不同辐射转移方案,太阳吸收对水蒸气的敏感性因模型而异,这对模型的传播有很大影响.
- 辐射转移方案的改进可以将预测的全球降水增加的扩散率降低约35%.
结论:
- 对短波吸收的准确建模对于降雨的气候变化预测的不确定性至关重要.
- 在气候模型中增强辐射转移方案可以使水文循环对变暖的反应得到更可靠的预测.
- 为了更好地了解未来的全球降水模式,
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