用于诊断过去和未来的冰川开始的临界阳光和CO2关系
A Ganopolski1, R Winkelmann1,2, H J Schellnhuber1,3
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14412 Potsdam, Germany.
Nature
|January 15, 2016
概括
全球二氧化碳 (CO2) 水平和北极夏季阳光极大地影响了冰川周期. 目前的二氧化碳度已经阻止了新的冰河时代,
科学领域:
- 古气候学
- 气候模型
- 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 北半球冰盖的增长历来伴随着北极夏季阳光的减少,结束了间冰期.
- 目前夏季阳光的低值表明,冰河期的条件已经成熟,但冰河时代并未迫在眉,挑战现有的理论.
- 了解冰川形成的机制对于预测未来的气候状态至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 研究北极夏季阳光和全球二氧化碳 (CO2) 度之间的关系.
- 解释过去八个冰川周期的开始,并预测未来的冰川开始.
- 评估人为二氧化碳排放对下一个冰川时期的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用中等复杂度的地球系统模型.
- 使用古气候数据进行受限模型模拟.
- 进行组合模拟以分析气候动态.
主要成果:
- 发现了北极夏季阳光和二氧化碳度之间的关键关系,解释了过去的冰川周期.
- 在工业革命之前,由于高水平的Holocene CO2 和低轨道偏心,冰川的形成几乎被避免了.
- 如果没有人类的影响, 现在的冰河间可能会持续5万年,
结论:
- 人类造成的二氧化碳排放量达到1000至1500GtC, 将会推迟下一个冰川形成的时间超过10万年.
- 地球系统自然趋向于稳定的间冰期状态,避免极端的冰化或脱冰.
- 由于微妙的平衡, 目前的间冰期条件异常延长,
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