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全球陆地生态系统对气候变化的敏感性
Alistair W R Seddon1, Marc Macias-Fauria2, Peter R Long3
1Department of Biology, University of Bergen, Allégaten 41, N-500 Bergen, Norway.
Nature
|February 18, 2016
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的植被敏感度指数,以识别对气候变化高度敏感的生态系统. 这有助于了解生态系统的弹性及其对人类福祉至关重要的服务的影响.
科学领域:
- 生态与环境科学
- 气候变化研究
- 遥感和地理空间分析
背景情况:
- 生态系统对气候变化的适应性是一个关键的全球研究重点.
- 了解生态系统对气候变化的敏感性是评估性的关键.
- 现有的理论模型表明临界值附近的系统对扰动更敏感.
研究的目的:
- 为评估生态系统对气候变化的敏感性开发并提出一种新的经验方法.
- 引入一种新的指标,即植被敏感度指数 (VSI),用于识别敏感区域.
- 为了解生态系统对环境变化的不同反应提供定量方法.
主要方法:
- 使用中等分辨率成像光谱仪 (MODIS) 的时间序列数据增强了植被指数 (EVI).
- 包含影响植被生产力的关键气候变量:空气温度,水的可用性和云覆盖.
- 采用自回归模型来分析每月的植被生产力,确定气候驱动因素,并检测具有记忆效应和减少反应率的区域.
主要成果:
- 在过去的14年中,特定的生态敏感地区对气候变化表现出强烈的反应.
- 敏感地区包括北极原,北极森林,热带雨林,高山地区,亚洲中部草原,南美卡廷加森林和澳大利亚东部.
- 植被敏感度指数 (VSI) 有效地突出了气候带来的植被变化.
结论:
- 开发的定量方法允许评估不同生态系统对环境变化的相对反应率.
- 这种方法对于研究不同生态系统敏感性的驱动因素至关重要.
- 了解生态系统的敏感性对于预测对生态系统服务和人类福祉的影响至关重要.
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