探测海洋碳汇趋势的时间表
Galen A McKinley1,2,3, Darren J Pilcher1,2,4, Amanda R Fay1,3
1Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA.
Nature
|February 26, 2016
概括
海洋吸收大量的人为产生的碳. 区分气候变化对海洋碳汇的影响与自然变化是具有挑战性的,但对于未来的预测至关重要.
科学领域:
- 海洋学
- 气候科学
- 碳循环研究
背景情况:
- 海洋是人类二氧化碳 (CO2) 的主要吸收源,吸收化石燃料和水泥生产的约41%的排放量.
- 虽然近几十年来海洋的碳吸收能力得到了很好的量化,但理解时间变化和将其归因于特定的驱动因素仍然是一个重大挑战.
- 难以区分由人为气候变化引起的趋势与由空气到海洋碳流的自然气候变化引起的趋势.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种方法来分离人为气候变化和内部气候变化的海洋碳汇的影响.
- 为了预测未来的海洋变化,
- 评估人为碳吸收率变化的可观性.
主要方法:
- 采用复杂的建模方法来解开气候变化和自然变化的碳流的影响.
- 分析了海洋碳汇的时间变化,考虑到区域差异.
- 评估了人类碳吸收趋势的直接观察潜力.
主要成果:
- 这项研究揭示了海洋碳汇未来的不同区域预测.
- 目前大部分海洋地区的人类碳吸收趋势的直接观测被显著的内部气候变化所掩盖.
- 在2020年至2050年间,可以在特定地区直接观察海洋碳汇的变化.
结论:
- 海洋碳汇的观察变化仅归因于人为气候变化,这是自然气候变化所造成的.
- 未来的预测表明,人为碳吸收趋势的可检测性将因地区而异.
- 这些发现强调了需要先进的建模来了解和监测海洋在全球碳循环中的作用.
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