评估经济学实验室实验的可复制性
Colin F Camerer1, Anna Dreber2, Eskil Forsell2
1Division of Humanities and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, 1200 East California Boulevard, MC 228-77, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA.
概括
复制了18项经济学研究,发现61%的结果具有重要意义. 平均复制效应大小为原始效应的66%,表明经济研究中的复制性适度.
科学领域:
- 经济学
- 经济计量学
- 科学复制
背景情况:
- 最近有关科学发现可复制性的担忧.
- 需要在经济学领域复制的经验数据.
研究的目的:
- 在顶级经济学期刊上发表的经验研究的可复制性.
- 提供关于经济研究可重复性的定量证据.
主要方法:
- 来自美国经济评论和季度经济学杂志 (2011-2014) 18项研究的复制.
- 使用预定义的,公开可用的每个复制的分析计划.
- 确保所有复制具有至少90%的统计能力以检测5%的显著程度的原始效应大小.
主要成果:
- 在18例复制中,有11例发现了原始方向的显著效应 (61%).
- 成功复制的平均效果大小是最初报告的效果大小的66%.
- 其他可复制性指标,包括预测市场,显示率在67%至78%之间.
结论:
- 很大一部分经济研究具有适度的可复制性.
- 这些发现为经济学中关于科学可重现性的讨论提供了经验证据.
- 这项研究强调了透明的分析计划和足够的统计能力对于确保可靠的研究结果的重要性.
更多相关视频
相关概念视频
What is an Experiment?
19.7K
An experiment is a planned activity carried out under controlled conditions. The purpose of an experiment is to investigate the relationship between two variables. When one variable causes change in another, we call the first variable the explanatory or independent variable. The affected variable is called the response or dependent variable. In a randomized experiment, the researcher manipulates values of the explanatory variable and measures the resulting changes in the response variable. The...
19.7K
Randomized Experiments
9.3K
The randomization process involves assigning study participants randomly to experimental or control groups based on their probability of being equally assigned. Randomization is meant to eliminate selection bias and balance known and unknown confounding factors so that the control group is similar to the treatment group as much as possible. A computer program and a random number generator can be used to assign participants to groups in a way that minimizes bias.
Simple randomization
Simple...
Simple randomization
Simple...
9.3K
Bioequivalence Experimental Study Designs: Repeated Measures, Cross-Over, Carry-Over, and Latin Square Designs
380
Bioequivalence experimental study designs play a pivotal role in testing the effectiveness of various treatments. Key among these are the repeated measures, cross-over, carry-over, and Latin square designs. In the repeated measures design, each subject receives all treatments, allowing for temporal comparisons. This type of design is useful in reducing variability but requires careful planning to avoid bias.The cross-over design, an economical method, involves sequential administration of...
380
Econometric Views (EViews)
665
Econometric Views, often stylized as EViews, is a package that merges statistical analysis with econometric studies. It is designed to provide tools for time series analysis, forecasting, and econometric model simulation. The software originated from MicroTSP software and has evolved significantly since its inception in 1981. The history of EViews is marked by a continuous effort to enhance its computational speed and user interface. It was initially developed for large computing systems but...
665
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
321
Mechanistic models are utilized in individual analysis using single-source data, but imperfections arise due to data collection errors, preventing perfect prediction of observed data. The mathematical equation involves known values (Xi), observed concentrations (Ci), measurement errors (εi), model parameters (ϕj), and the related function (ƒi) for i number of values. Different least-squares metrics quantify differences between predicted and observed values. The ordinary least...
321
Uncertainty in Measurement: Accuracy and Precision
113.5K
Scientists typically make repeated measurements of a quantity to ensure the quality of their findings and to evaluate both the precision and the accuracy of their results. Measurements are said to be precise if they yield very similar results when repeated in the same manner. A measurement is considered accurate if it yields a result that is very close to the true or the accepted value. Precise values agree with each other; accurate values agree with a true value.
113.5K


