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气候变化下的未来粮食生产对全球和区域健康的影响:一项建模研究
Marco Springmann1, Daniel Mason-D'Croz2, Sherman Robinson2
1Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food, British Heart Foundation Centre on Population Approaches for Non-Communicable Disease Prevention, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Lancet (London, England)
|March 8, 2016
概括
到2050年,气候变化将对全球饮食和健康产生重大影响,导致死亡率上升. 缓解策略和公共卫生计划可以防止许多与气候有关的死亡.
科学领域:
- 农业科学
- 气候科学
- 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球农业和粮食安全构成重大风险.
- 需要进一步评估由气候驱动的农业变化对健康的影响.
- 这项研究模拟了与气候相关的饮食和体重变化的过度死亡率.
研究的目的:
- 估计到2050年因饮食和体重变化而导致的过度死亡率.
- 分析全球155个地区和各种排放/社会经济发展途径的影响.
- 评估气候缓解和适应战略的潜力.
主要方法:
- 综合农业建模 (IMPACT) 与比较风险评估
- 评估了水果/蔬菜和红肉消费量以及体重的变化.
- 在四个排放途径和三个社会经济途径中建模影响.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年,全球人均粮食供应量 (3.2%) 和水果/蔬菜消费量 (4.0%) 将减少.
- 全球超过529,000人因气候变化而死亡.
- 减少水果/蔬菜摄入导致的死亡人数多于体重不足; 南亚和东亚受影响最大.
结论:
- 气候变化通过饮食和体重对健康的影响很大,可能超过其他估计的影响.
- 减缓气候变化可以显著减少与气候有关的死亡 (29-71%).
- 针对饮食和体重的公共卫生计划是关键的气候适应策略.
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