在生物医学文献中报告P值的演变,1990-2015年
David Chavalarias1, Joshua David Wallach2, Alvin Ho Ting Li3
1Centre d'Analyse et de Mathématiques Sociales (CAMS), EHESS-CNRS UMR8557 and Complex Systems Institute of Paris Île-de-France (ISC-PIF, UPS3611), Paris, France.
JAMA
|March 16, 2016
概括
生物医学研究越来越多地报告P值,其中大多数具有统计意义. 然而,很少有研究包括效果大小或置信区间,这阻碍了数据的全面解释.
科学领域:
- 生物统计学
- 图书识别技术
- 科学出版
背景情况:
- 科学文献中的P值的解释和报告是持续辩论的主题.
- 了解P值报告的趋势对于评估生物医学研究的质量和可重复性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在生物医学研究摘要和全文中报告的25年 (1990-2015) 的P值进行大规模评估.
- 确定以P值以外的格式呈现的统计信息的频率.
主要方法:
- 对超过1200万个MEDLINE摘要和近100万篇PubMed Central (PMC) 文章进行了自动化文本挖掘分析.
- 在核心临床期刊和特定类型的文章中报告P值的评估.
- 用于统计报告实践的1000篇摘要和100篇全文文章的随机样本的手动评估.
主要成果:
- 摘要中的P值报告从1990年的7.3%大幅增加到2014年的15.6%.
- 2014年,P值在元分析 (35.7%) 和随机对照试验 (54.8%) 中经常报告,但在评论中很少出现 (2.4%).
- 具有P值的文章中有很大比例 (96%) 报告了统计学显著的结果 (≤0.05);然而,报告效果大小 (13.9%) 和置信区间 (2.3%) 仍然很低.
结论:
- 生物医学文献显示报告P值的趋势越来越大,主要表明统计学意义.
- 在已发表的研究中,效果大小和不确定性指标 (例如,置信区间) 的使用不足.
- 该研究建议转向报告效应大小和不确定性指标以及P值,以便进行更强大的科学沟通.
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