中国的排放对全球气候强化的贡献
Bengang Li1,2, Thomas Gasser3,4, Philippe Ciais3
1Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
Nature
|March 18, 2016
概括
中国对全球辐射强迫有10%的贡献,温室气体和黑碳的变暖效应,以及硫酸盐气溶的冷却效应. 未来的空气质量改善可能会加快气候变暖,
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 大气化学
- 环境科学
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化缓解依赖于了解国家对辐射强迫的贡献.
- 中国的快速经济增长导致了排放的增加, 但其对辐射强迫的影响尚不清楚.
- "共同但有区别的责任"原则需要量化每个国家的贡献.
研究的目的:
- 量化中国目前对全球辐射强迫的影响.
- 区分温室气体混合,短期气候变化和土地使用变化的贡献.
- 预测空气质量政策对未来辐射强迫的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用全球生物地化学气候模型.
- 使用化学和运输模型进行大气模拟.
- 来自CO2,CH4,气溶 (硫酸盐,酸盐,黑碳) 的量化辐射强迫和白色变化.
主要成果:
- 中国目前占全球辐射强迫量的10%±4%.
- 导致12%±2%的积极 (变暖) 强迫 (温室气体,黑碳).
- 导致15%±6%的负 (冷却) 强迫 (硫酸盐,酸盐气溶).
结论:
- 中国的排放对全球辐射强迫有很大影响.
- 减少对空气质量的二氧化硫可能会增加未来的变暖.
- 为了平衡气候变暖和变冷的影响,需要管理短期和长期的气候变化因素.
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