2013年至2040年间,184个国家的国家卫生支出
Joseph L Dieleman1, Tara Templin1, Nafis Sadat1
1Institute for Heath Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.
Lancet (London, England)
|April 18, 2016
概括
全球卫生支出预计到2040年将翻一番, 但低收入国家将继续远远落后于高收入国家. 没有政策变化,卫生支出不太可能实现, 阻碍发展中国家的进步.
科学领域:
- 全球健康
- 健康经济学
- 经济计量学
背景情况:
- 经济发展通常与人均医疗支出和预付费用增加有关.
- 这些变化的速度和规模在不同国家之间存在显著差异.
- 这项研究基于历史趋势和关系预测未来的医疗支出.
研究的目的:
- 估计未来的医疗支出,按资金来源进行分类.
- 根据目前的政策确定潜在的卫生融资轨迹.
- 分析184个国家的2013年至2040年的医疗支出变化.
主要方法:
- 利用了世卫组织卫生支出观察中心和IHME2015年全球卫生融资报告的数据.
- 调整为通用购买力平价和通胀调整后的货币.
- 采用综合模型和经验规范来预测政府,自付,私人预付和发展援助的医疗支出.
主要成果:
- 全球卫生支出预计将从7.83万亿美元 (2013年) 增加到18.28万亿美元 (2040年).
- 人均医疗支出增长率因收入水平而异,没有增加平价的迹象.
- 低收入国家将继续为高收入国家每花费1美元花费0.03美元; 很少有国家能达到5%的GDP政府支出目标.
结论:
- 目前的医疗融资趋势表明,许多低收入和中低收入国家将无法达到国际支出目标.
- 如果没有实质性政策干预, 低收入国家与高收入国家之间的卫生支出差距不太可能缩小.
- 为了实现医疗系统资源的有意义增加,除了提高效率之外,还需要采取协调一致的政策行动.
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