混合相云的观测限制意味着更高的气候敏感性
Ivy Tan1, Trude Storelvmo2, Mark D Zelinka3
1Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA. ivy.tan@yale.edu.
概括
当混合相云被准确模拟时,全球气候敏感度 (ECS) 估计会增加. 这是由于云相反的减弱,与温暖气候中的云结冰速度减慢有关.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 大气物理
- 云的微物理
背景情况:
- 全球气候模型 (GCM) 估计平衡气候敏感度 (ECS) 在二氧化碳在2.0°C至4.6°C之间翻倍.
- 在这些ECS预测中,云是主要的不确定性来源.
- 混合相云包含冰晶和超冷液滴, 在气候反中起着关键作用.
研究的目的:
- 调查现实的混合相云表示对ECS估计的影响.
- 量化云相反对气候敏感性的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用全球卫星观测混合相云的限制GCM模拟.
- 分析云结冰率与气候敏感性之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 在受卫星限制的混合相云的模拟中,ECS估计增加了高达1.3°C.
- 较高的ECS与弱化的云阶段反有关.
- 在温暖的气候下降的云结冰率有助于反的减弱.
结论:
- 在混合相云中精确表示超冷液体分数对于GCM至关重要.
- 云阶段的反对ECS有重大影响,需要进一步调查.
- 卫星限制提高了气候敏感性预测的可靠性.
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