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对传染病危机的经济脆弱性的评估
Peter Sands1, Anas El Turabi2, Philip A Saynisch3
1Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Lancet (London, England)
|May 24, 2016
概括
宏观经济预测往往忽视了流行病风险,导致准备不足. 将传染病数据纳入经济分析可以改善预测并激励减轻风险的努力.
科学领域:
- 全球卫生安全
- 宏观经济学
- 流行病学
背景情况:
- 传染病危机对经济构成重大威胁,但经常被排除在主流经济预测之外.
- 这种排除导致了对流行病风险的低估,以及对准备和应对方面的投资不足.
- 缺乏可访问的数据阻碍了经济学家将传染病威胁纳入其评估的能力.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种方法来生成有关经济脆弱性传染病危机的数据.
- 在国家和区域层面建立一个评估这一弱点的框架.
- 倡导将传染病风险纳入宏观经济分析.
主要方法:
- 建议全球卫生界为经济分析提供具体的输入数据.
- 开发一个框架来利用这些数据来评估经济脆弱性.
- 建议纳入有影响力的经济报告 (例如,国际货币基金组织第四条商).
主要成果:
- 拟议的方法可以为经济脆弱性评估提供可理解的输入数据.
- 该框架允许对国家和地区进行特定的经济脆弱性评估.
- 将其纳入经济分析可以提高预测准确度,并鼓励降低风险.
结论:
- 将传染病的经济脆弱性纳入宏观经济分析至关重要.
- 这种整合提高了经济风险预测的质量.
- 它加强了政府和捐助者投资减轻传染病风险的动力.
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