1979年至2013年澳大利亚枪支法改革与故意枪支死亡之间的关联
Simon Chapman1, Philip Alpers1, Michael Jones2
1School of Public Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
JAMA
|June 23, 2016
概括
澳大利亚
科学领域:
- 公共卫生
- 犯罪学
- 流行病学
背景情况:
- 大规模枪击事件通常涉及快速射击武器.
- 澳大利亚在1996年颁布了重大枪支法改革, 包括禁止某些枪支和回购计划.
研究的目的:
- 评估澳大利亚1996年枪支法改革对大规模枪支杀人事件和整体枪支死亡事件的影响.
- 确定这些改革是否导致大规模枪击事件发生率和枪支死亡率的变化.
主要方法:
- 使用澳大利亚政府关于枪支死亡 (1979-2013) 和大规模枪击报告 (1979-2016) 的观察性研究.
- 负二项式回归分析了故意枪支死亡率的变化.
- 1996年之前和之后与枪支有关的大规模杀戮事件的比较.
主要成果:
- 从1997年到2016年5月, 澳大利亚没有发生致命的大规模枪击事件,
- 在改革后,枪支死亡总数的下降趋势显著加快.
- 虽然枪支自杀率下降得更快,但非枪支自杀和谋杀率也下降,使归因变得复杂.
结论:
- 澳大利亚在1996年改革枪支法后, 完全没有致命的大规模枪击事件.
- 枪支死亡人数显著下降,但非枪支死亡人数的同时下降使直接归因变得复杂.
- 由于非枪支死亡率的同时趋势,该研究无法最终将枪支死亡人数的减少归因于枪支法改革.
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