21世纪南极半岛没有变暖,与自然变化一致
John Turner1, Hua Lu1, Ian White1
1British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
Nature
|July 23, 2016
概括
南极半岛的变暖已经停止,自20世纪90年代末以来,有显著的降温. 这种冷却是由大气循环的自然变化驱动的, 而不是全球变暖的趋势.
科学领域:
- * 大气科学
- * 气候科学
- * 冰川学
背景情况:
- 自20世纪50年代以来,南极半岛的近地气温大幅上升.
- 这种变暖与冰川的退缩,冰架的解体和植物的扩张有关.
- * 潜在的驱动因素包括臭氧消耗,海冰消失和大气电信连接的改变.
研究的目的:
- 分析南极半岛自上世纪90年代末以来的区域温度趋势.
- * 调查该地区最近温度变化的驱动因素.
- * 评估区域和全球温度变化驱动因素之间的关系.
主要方法:
- * 使用堆叠的温度记录进行趋势分析.
- 分析了风力模式和大气循环的变化.
- * 研究了海冰的引流模式.
主要成果:
- * 自上世纪90年代末以来,每年平均气温有显著的下降.
- * 最明显的降温发生在南方夏季.
- * 降温与东南风的频率增加以及韦德尔海的气旋条件有关.
结论:
- 南极半岛的十年温度变化并不是主要由全球变暖因素驱动的.
- 区域冷却是由于大气循环的极端自然变化造成的.
- * 中射线的增强和海冰的增加加剧了冷却效应.
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