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气候变化的社会和经济影响
Tamma A Carleton1, Solomon M Hsiang2
1Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA. Global Policy Lab, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
概括
气候对社会和经济产生重大影响,影响健康,冲突和移民. 目前的气候条件造成的负担相当于未来气候变化的影响.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 经济学
- 社会学
- 气候科学
背景情况:
- 对气候对社会和经济的影响的历史和持续考虑.
- 聚焦气候与人类系统的多学科研究复兴
- 持续的适应差距凸显了当前气候条件的持续相关性.
研究的目的:
- 阐明气候与人类系统的关键联系.
- 介绍有关气候影响的方法创新和结果.
- 为应对现代气候条件提供信息,并预测未来的影响.
主要方法:
- 量化经验研究.
- 分析气候对健康,经济,冲突,移民和人口的影响.
- 具体影响的计算,如收益率下降和冲突风险升高.
主要成果:
- 美国的玉米产量下降了48%.
- 自1980年以来的变暖使非洲的冲突风险增加了11%.
- 未来的变暖可能会使全球经济增长率每年减缓0.28%.
结论:
- 目前的气候条件带来的经济和社会负担与预计的未来气候变化影响相美.
- 气候是全球经济发展的关键因素.
- 这些发现应为应对当前气候挑战和预测未来后果提供指导.
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