放射性碳限制意味着土壤在21世纪的碳吸收减少
Yujie He1, Susan E Trumbore2, Margaret S Torn3
1Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA. yujie.he@uci.edu.
概括
地球系统模型低估了土壤的碳年龄,高估了土壤的碳沉积潜力. 这凸显了需要改进的模型来准确预测未来大气中的二氧化碳含量.
科学领域:
- 地球科学
- 气候科学
- 土壤科学
背景情况:
- 土壤是地球上最大的碳库,对碳循环和气候反产生重大影响.
- 地球系统模型 (ESM) 预计到2100年将有大量的土壤碳汇,但它们的准确性需要对实证数据进行验证.
- 土壤中的关键碳动态尚未完全理解或在当前模型中准确地表现.
研究的目的:
- 系统地测试地球系统模型 (ESM) 对观测数据的模拟土壤碳动态的精度.
- 评估模拟和观察到的土壤碳平均年龄和封存潜力之间的差异.
- 确定ESM所需的改进,以实现更可靠的气候变化预测.
主要方法:
- 使用放射性碳 (C) 测年技术.
- 分析了157个分布在全球的土壤概况,深度为1米.
- 与多个ESM估计的C衍生的土壤碳平均年龄进行比较.
主要成果:
- ESM低估了土壤碳的平均年龄超过六倍 (观察: 3100 ± 1800 年与建模: 430 ± 50 年).
- 因此,ESM高估了土壤碳捕获潜力约为40±27%.
- 在模型模拟和实证土壤碳年龄数据之间发现了显著的不一致性.
结论:
- 目前的ESM需要在表现土壤碳稳定机制方面进行重大改进.
- 现有的模型低估了缓慢和被动的土壤碳储存的周转时间.
- 准确模拟土壤碳动态对于预测未来大气二氧化碳度和气候变化至关重要.
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