中国两子制政策的影响
1National School of Development and Raissun Institute for Advanced Studies, Peking University, Beijing, China; Center for Study of Aging and Human Development and Geriatrics Division, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
Lancet (London, England)
|October 19, 2016
概括
在中国
科学领域:
- 人口统计
- 公共卫生政策
- 社会学
背景情况:
- 中国在2015年10月实施了全民双子政策,取代了长期以来的单子政策.
- 这一政策转变旨在解决人口不平衡和社会需求.
- 之前的人口控制措施对中国的人口结构产生了重大影响.
研究的目的:
- 预测中国从一个孩子政策过渡到两个孩子政策的人口和健康结果.
- 分析对人口结构和健康的潜在益处和长期影响.
- 提供有关人口管理和社会福利的未来政策行动的信息.
主要方法:
- 分析最近的人口趋势和人口预测.
- 两个孩子政策对人口增长和结构的影响.
- 根据政策变化评估可能改善的健康结果.
主要成果:
- 人口预计将在2029年达到145亿.
- 预计这项政策将减少堕胎,消除未登记的儿童,并使性别比例正常化.
- 由于这些人口变化, 预计会有积极的健康结果.
结论:
- 全民双子政策通过允许生育选择, 提供了重要的社会和健康效益.
- 对劳动力和人口老龄化的长期影响将在大约20年内显现.
- 积极的政策干预对于满足人口老龄化需求至关重要.
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