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气候变化:2015年巴黎协定门和地中海盆地生态系统

Joel Guiot¹, Wolfgang Cramer²

¹Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Collège de France, Centre Européen de Recherche et d'Enseignement de Géosciences de l'Environnement (CEREGE), Ecosystèmes Continentaux et Risques Environnementaux (ECCOREV), Aix-en-Provence, France. guiot@cerege.fr.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|October 30, 2016

概括

地中海生态系统保持在全新纪变化范围内, 1.5°C的变暖极限至关重要. 超过2°C的变暖可能导致前所未有的生态系统变化,影响生物多样性和土地利用.

科学领域:

古气候学
生态学
气候变化科学

背景情况:

巴黎协议的目标是将全球变暖限制在2°C以下.
地中海的生态系统面临着气候变化的重大风险.
全新纪气候变化为生态系统的稳定提供了基线.

研究的目的:

评估不同变暖情景对地中海陆地生态系统的影响.
将未来气候变化与过去的全新生态系统动态进行比较.
确定生态系统保护的关键变暖值.

主要方法:

使用基于花粉的气候和生态系统重建跨越1万年.
将重建的全新生态系统动态与未来的气候变化场景进行比较.
分析1.5°C和2°C升温值的影响.

主要成果:

一个1.5°C的变暖场景允许地中海生态系统保持在全新纪的变化范围之内.
2°C或以上的升温将导致前所未有的生态系统变化.
全新纪气候的特点是降水不足,而不是极端的温度异常.

结论:

为了保持地中海生态系统的稳定,限制全球变暖至1.5°C至关重要.
超过2°C的变暖对区域生物多样性和土地利用构成严重的,无与伦比的威胁.
过去的气候变化,特别是降雨模式,为当前的变暖影响提供了背景.

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