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在美国最极端的龙卷风爆发中出现更多龙卷风
Michael K Tippett1,2, Chiara Lepore3, Joel E Cohen4,5,6
1Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA. mkt14@columbia.edu.
概括
美国的龙卷风爆发频率正在增加,尤其是最极端的事件. 这些恶劣天气趋势与全球变暖预测不符.
科学领域:
- 大气科学
- 气候学
- 极端天气事件
背景情况:
- 在美国,龙卷风和强烈的雷暴每年造成大量的死亡和财产损失.
- 在2016年上半年, 严重的雷暴造成的保险损失达到了85亿美元.
- 龙卷风的爆发, 连续发生的龙卷风, 负责美国最实质性的影响.
研究的目的:
- 分析美国龙卷风爆发频率的趋势.
- 调查疫情严重程度与频率之间的关系.
- 模拟极端龙卷风爆发事件的行为.
主要方法:
- 用极端价值分析来研究龙卷风爆发数据.
- 使用时间依赖参数的极端值分布进行建模.
- 分析考虑了多十年气候变化的指标.
主要成果:
- 美国的龙卷风爆发频率正在增加.
- 对于更极端的疫情, 增长速度更为.
- 在极端气象环境中观察到的上升趋势与全球变暖的预期不符.
结论:
- 极端龙卷风的爆发变得越来越频繁和强烈.
- 观察到的趋势表明目前全球变暖预测之外的因素可能会影响恶劣的天气.
- 需要进一步的研究来了解这些不断增加的龙卷风爆发趋势的驱动因素.
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