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百年级的全新纪气候变化被南极冰层排放放大
Pepijn Bakker1, Peter U Clark1, Nicholas R Golledge2,3
1College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331, USA.
全球气候模型低估了过去的气候变化. 南极冰盖排放的波动,由海洋温度变化驱动,放大了气候变化,表明冰盖影响了全新纪气候变化.
科学领域:
- 古气候学
- 冰川学
- 气候模型
背景情况:
- 目前的全球气候模型低估了 Holocene 气候在百年到千年的时间尺度上的变化.
- 差异可能源于简化海洋与大气的合,能源级联问题或未解决的缓慢气候反,如碳循环和冰盖相互作用.
- 冰盖与气候的相互作用显著影响了过去的冰川和轨道气候变化,对未来的气候变化预测至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查南极冰盖排放波动在放大全纪气候变化中的作用.
- 为了确定一个动态的南极冰盖是否会导致过去的气候波动.
- 评估十年与多世纪海洋强迫对冰盖反应和未来气候变化的影响.
主要方法:
- 分析了南极冰盖的高时间分辨率冰山碎片记录.
- 南极冰盖的高空间分辨率模型.
- 多千年全球气候模型模拟.
主要成果:
- 海底温度的微小变化会引发南极冰层的排放波动.
- 这些波动在多个世纪的时间尺度上放大了区域和全球气候的变化.
- 冰盖对十年海洋强迫的反应似乎不如对长期变化的反应显著.
结论:
- 南极极地冰层可能在全新纪气候波动中发挥了重要作用.
- 未来南极冰层的行为很可能会受到长期的人为变暖和多个世纪的自然变化的影响.
- 了解冰盖气候反对于准确的气候变化预测至关重要.
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