预测武装冲突:时间调整我们的期望?
Lars-Erik Cederman1, Nils B Weidmann2
1ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. lcederman@ethz.ch nils.weidmann@uni-konstanz.de.
概括
预测政治暴力与地震等自然事件相比, 这篇文章阐明了现实的预期, 并强调了政治暴力预测领域的重大进展.
科学领域:
- 政治科学
- 冲突研究
- 预测情况
背景情况:
- 预测政治暴力是很复杂的,
- 人们对政治暴力的可预见性有着广泛的误解.
研究的目的:
- 介绍预测政治暴力所面临的挑战.
- 在暴力预测中区分现实的和不现实的期望.
- 展示政治暴力预测领域取得的进展.
主要方法:
- 概念分析和文献审查.
- 预测方法的比较分析 (政治暴力与自然事件).
主要成果:
- 预测政治暴力与预测由于人类和复杂的社会政治因素造成的自然现象不同.
- 已经取得了显著的方法进步,提高了预测的准确性和范围.
结论:
- 虽然完全的预测仍然难以捉摸,但在理解和预测政治暴力方面取得了重大进展.
- 揭穿迷思和阐明现实的目标对于这一领域的发展至关重要.
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