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相关概念视频

Predicting Reaction Outcomes02:24

Predicting Reaction Outcomes

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Kinetics describes the rate and path by which a reaction occurs. In contrast, thermodynamics deals with state functions and describes the properties, behavior, and components of a system. It is not concerned with the path taken by the process and cannot address the rate at which a reaction occurs. Although it does provide information about what can happen during a reaction process, it does not describe the detailed steps of what appears on an atomic or a molecular level. On the other hand,...
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Steps in Outbreak Investigation01:18

Steps in Outbreak Investigation

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In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
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Determination of Expected Frequency01:08

Determination of Expected Frequency

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Suppose one wants to test independence between the two variables of a contingency table. The values in the table constitute the observed frequencies of the dataset. But how does one determine the expected frequency of the dataset? One of the important assumptions is that the two variables are independent, which means the variables do not influence each other. For independent variables, the statistical probability of any event involving both variables is calculated by multiplying the individual...
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Prediction Intervals01:03

Prediction Intervals

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The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y. 
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Predicting Molecular Geometry02:27

Predicting Molecular Geometry

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VSEPR Theory for Determination of Electron Pair Geometries
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Hindsight Biases01:12

Hindsight Biases

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Hindsight bias leads you to believe that the event you just experienced was predictable, even though it really wasn’t. In other words, you knew all along that things would turn out the way they did. Can you relate this to the phrase "Hindsight is 20/20" now? 
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相关实验视频

Updated: Mar 8, 2026

Author Spotlight: Development of an Automated Camera-Based System for Real-Time Blast Overpressure Monitoring and TBI Risk Assessment in Military Training
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Author Spotlight: Development of an Automated Camera-Based System for Real-Time Blast Overpressure Monitoring and TBI Risk Assessment in Military Training

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预测武装冲突:时间调整我们的期望?

Lars-Erik Cederman1, Nils B Weidmann2

  • 1ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. lcederman@ethz.ch nils.weidmann@uni-konstanz.de.

Science (New York, N.Y.)
|February 4, 2017
PubMed
概括

预测政治暴力与地震等自然事件相比, 这篇文章阐明了现实的预期, 并强调了政治暴力预测领域的重大进展.

科学领域:

  • 政治科学
  • 冲突研究
  • 预测情况

背景情况:

  • 预测政治暴力是很复杂的,
  • 人们对政治暴力的可预见性有着广泛的误解.

研究的目的:

  • 介绍预测政治暴力所面临的挑战.
  • 在暴力预测中区分现实的和不现实的期望.
  • 展示政治暴力预测领域取得的进展.

主要方法:

  • 概念分析和文献审查.
  • 预测方法的比较分析 (政治暴力与自然事件).

主要成果:

  • 预测政治暴力与预测由于人类和复杂的社会政治因素造成的自然现象不同.
  • 已经取得了显著的方法进步,提高了预测的准确性和范围.

结论:

  • 虽然完全的预测仍然难以捉摸,但在理解和预测政治暴力方面取得了重大进展.
  • 揭穿迷思和阐明现实的目标对于这一领域的发展至关重要.

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