通过预测比赛将概率判断纳入政策辩论
Philip E Tetlock1, Barbara A Mellers2, J Peter Scoblic3
1Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA. tetlock@wharton.upenn.edu.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|February 4, 2017
概括
政治预测锦标赛使用概率估计提高预测准确性, 即使对于独特的事件. 这些有结构的竞争也可以帮助去分化辩论和解决政策争端.
科学领域:
- 政治科学
- 决策科学
- 情报研究
背景情况:
- 由于语言模糊,政治辩论往往缺乏准确的预测,阻碍了政策评估和改进.
- 预测的准确性对于有效的政策制定和理解复杂的政治环境至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 探索结构化预测比赛如何提高预测准确度.
- 调查赛事在改善政策争端解决和政治话语脱极化的潜力.
主要方法:
- 一个由美国情报机构赞助的比赛被用来分析预测方法.
- 这项研究基于有关问责制对绩效和决策的影响的文献.
主要成果:
- 预测人员在预测中更好地使用概率估计,包括对独特事件的预测.
- 赛事被认为是预测知识生成的有效工具.
结论:
- 结构化预测锦标赛提供了一种可行的方法来提高预测准确性并产生有价值的知识.
- 通过问责制促进政治辩论和政策决策.
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