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社会系统中的预测和解释
Jake M Hofman1, Amit Sharma1, Duncan J Watts1
1Microsoft Research, 641 Avenue of the Americas, 7th Floor, New York, NY 10003, USA. jmh@microsoft.com amshar@microsoft.com duncan@microsoft.com.
概括
社会科学正在转向计算方法, 优先考虑预测. 这需要标准化评估实践,理解复杂系统中的理论限制,并将预测准确性和可解释性视为强有力的研究的补充.
科学领域:
- 社会科学
- 计算社会科学
- 预测模型
背景情况:
- 传统的社会科学研究在历史上将可解释的因果机制优先于预测的准确性.
- 社会科学中的计算方法的兴起正在挑战这种长期存在的偏见.
- 这种转变需要解决关键问题,
研究的目的:
- 论证社会科学中预测准确性的日益重要.
- 在计算社会科学时代需要解决的三个关键问题.
- 提供更准确,可复制和有用的社会科学研究途径.
主要方法:
- 社会科学中的传统与计算方法的概念分析.
- 确定和讨论评估预测准确性的挑战.
- 预测准确性与可解释性之间的关系的理论框架.
主要成果:
- 目前社会科学中评估预测的实践缺乏标准化.
- 在复杂的社会系统中,预测准确性的理论限制并未得到很好的描述.
- 预测准确性和可解释性通常被视为替代品,而不是补充.
结论:
- 标准化预测评估对于可靠的社会科学至关重要.
- 描述理论限制将为预测和解释设置现实的期望.
- 整合预测准确性和可解释性将提高社会科学发现的质量和实用性.
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