35个工业化国家的未来预期寿命:贝叶斯模型组合的预测
Vasilis Kontis1, James E Bennett1, Colin D Mathers2
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Lancet (London, England)
|February 26, 2017
概括
预计未来的预期寿命将大幅增加,到2030年,女性的年龄将超过90岁. 这些发现凸显了卫生和养老服务的积极规划的必要性.
科学领域:
- 人口统计
- 公共卫生
- 老年学
背景情况:
- 准确的死亡率和预期寿命预测对于规划医疗服务,社会支持和养老金制度至关重要.
- 预测模型选择的不确定性需要强大的预测方法.
研究的目的:
- 预测国家特定年龄的死亡率和预期寿命.
- 将模型的不确定性纳入35个工业化国家的未来预测.
主要方法:
- 开发了21个概率预测模型.
- 应用特定年龄的死亡率和寿命表方法来预测到2030年的死亡率和预期寿命.
- 在65岁出生时的预期寿命和70岁之前死亡的概率.
主要成果:
- 预计所有35个国家的预期寿命都将增加 (女性≥65%,男性≥85%).
- 韩国女性在2030年超过86.7岁的可能性很高 (90%),超过90岁的可能性为57%.
- 在大多数国家,女性的预期寿命优势预计将下降,而显著的长寿增长归因于65岁以后的生存率增加.
结论:
- 到2030年, 女性的预期寿命可能会超过90岁,
- 预测显示寿命持续增加,强调需要在社会服务和养老金方面进行适应性规划.
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