宿主和病毒特征预测哺乳动物的动物传播
Kevin J Olival1, Parviez R Hosseini1, Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio1
1EcoHealth Alliance, 460 West 34th Street, New York, New York 10001, USA.
Nature
|June 22, 2017
概括
识别具有大流行潜力的野生动物病毒至关重要. 这项研究预测了哪些哺乳动物种类携带动物传染性病毒,发现蝙蝠的数量不成比例,指导了未来对新出现的传染病的监测工作.
科学领域:
- 动物学
- 病毒学
- 流行病学
背景情况:
- 大多数新出现的人类传染病都是动物传染病,来源于野生哺乳动物.
- 了解野生动物传播的病毒影响对于疫情监测至关重要.
- 预测动物传播的分析工具是有限的.
研究的目的:
- 分析哺乳动物与宿主病毒的关系,并预测动物感染的可能性.
- 确定最有可能在未来引起人类疫情的宿主物种和病毒.
- 制定一个框架来评估新型病毒的动物传染风险.
主要方法:
- 对哺乳动物宿主病毒相互作用的全面分析.
- 对研究工作进行统计建模控制.
- 宿主病毒关系和宿主特征的遗传学分析.
主要成果:
- 每种病毒的数量和动物传播的比例是可预测的.
- 人类的基因关系,宿主分类学和人类人口密度预测了动物病的比例.
- 与其他哺乳动物相比,蝙蝠的动物感染病毒比例明显高.
- 鉴定了"缺失病毒"和"缺失动物病"的高风险分类和区域.
结论:
- 预测模型可以识别具有高动物感染潜力的物种和病毒.
- 蝙蝠是动物感染病毒的重要储存库.
- 这一框架有助于优先考虑预防未来的流行病的监测工作.
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