气候变化导致南极无冰的息地扩大
Jasmine R Lee1,2, Ben Raymond3,4,5, Thomas J Bracegirdle6
1Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia.
Nature
|June 29, 2017
概括
气候变化可能会显著扩大南极无冰区,增加息地连接. 这可能导致这些独特的极地生态系统的生物同质化和物种丧失.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 气候科学
- 生态学
背景情况:
- 南极陆地生物多样性仅限于有限的无冰区域,不到大陆的1%.
- 预计气候变化会改变这些重要息地,但范围和影响尚不确定.
研究的目的:
- 量化气候变化对21世纪南极无冰区的影响.
- 在不同的气候强迫场景下建模潜在的变化.
主要方法:
- 使用温度指数的融化模型来模拟无冰区的变化.
- 根据政府间气候变化小组 (IPCC) 的两种气候强迫情景分析了预测.
主要成果:
- 在排放量最高的情景下,没有冰的区域可能增加17000平方公里,
- 预计南极半岛将大幅扩张,可能会使无冰区增加三倍,并增加息地连接.
结论:
- 预计南极无冰区的增加将改变生物多样性息地的可用性和连接性.
- 潜在的后果包括生物同质化,不那么有竞争力的物种的灭绝和入侵物种的扩散.
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