全球生物多样性损失的预测减少
Anthony Waldron1,2, Daniel C Miller2, Dave Redding3
1Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, Oxford University, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
Nature
|October 27, 2017
概括
在109个国家,保护投资显著减少了生物多样性损失的中位数为29%. 一个新的模型预测了人类发展压力的保护结果和指导.
科学领域:
- 生态学
- 保护生物学
- 环境经济学
背景情况:
- 全球生物多样性丧失是一个重大挑战,阻碍了生物多样性公约和联合国可持续发展目标.
- 在保护方面取得的有限成功部分是由于对融资决策影响的不确定性.
- 需要一个基于证据的模型来量化地将保护支出与减少生物多样性损失联系起来.
研究的目的:
- 展示一个量化模型,将保护投资与减少生物多样性损失联系起来.
- 实证地评估保护支出对签署国家生物多样性的影响.
- 为决策者开发预测工具,以预测保护结果和资金需求.
主要方法:
- 开发并应用了一种定量模型来评估保护投资的影响.
- 分析了1996-2008年间109个国家 (CBD和SDG签署国) 的数据.
- 利用双重模型,平衡保护投资与人类发展压力 (经济,农业,人口增长) 以实现预测准确性.
主要成果:
- 保护投资减少了生物多样性的损失,平均每国29%.
- 签署国家的生物多样性变化得到了高度准确的预测.
- 该模型表明,随着人类发展压力的增加,保护支出的影响会减少.
结论:
- 开发的模型提供了基于证据的方法来指导保护融资.
- 决策者可以使用该模型在各种情景下预测拟议预算的有效性.
- 随着时间的推移,随着人类发展压力的增加,可能需要增加资金,这凸显了动态金融战略的必要性.
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