庇护申请应对温度波动
Anouch Missirian1, Wolfram Schlenker1,2,3
1School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.
概括
气候变化影响人类迁徙,气候变化与欧盟庇护申请的增加有关. 未来的变暖可能会显著加快这一趋势,特别是在更高的排放情况下.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 气候变化研究
- 社会学
背景情况:
- 国际气候变化谈判和地中海移民强调需要了解气候变化对人类流动性的影响.
- 之前的研究还没有完全量化天气变化与跨境庇护申请之间的关系.
研究的目的:
- 调查2000年至2014年气候变化与向欧盟 (EU) 提出的庇护申请之间的数量关系.
- 根据气候变化情景来预测未来的庇护申请.
主要方法:
- 分析了欧盟的庇护申请 (平均每年351,000个) 与来自103个来源国家的天气数据 (2000年至2014年) 的相关性.
- 使用了NASA地球交换全球每日缩放预测 (NEX-GDDP) 和21种气候模型进行未来预测.
- 用于未来气候建模的 4.5 和 8.5 场景.
主要成果:
- 温度偏离最佳温度~20°C 不线性增加的庇护申请
- 在RCP 4.5下,预计到2100年将增加28% (每年98,000个申请).
- 在RCP 8.5下,到2100年将大幅增加188% (每年66万份申请).
结论:
- 气候变化,特别是气温异常, 是欧盟庇护申请的重要驱动因素.
- 预计未来的气候变暖将导致庇护申请的大幅加快,需要采取积极的政策措施.
- 这些发现强调迫切需要采取全球气候行动,以减轻气候变化及其相关的迁移压力.
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