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气候,生态系统和行星未来:在地球系统模型中预测生命的挑战
Gordon B Bonan1, Scott C Doney2
1National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO 80307, USA. bonan@ucar.edu sdoney@virginia.edu.
概括
全球变化会对生态系统和气候产生影响. 地球系统模型对于预测气候,生态系统服务以及适应和减缓资源至关重要.
科学领域:
- 生态学
- 地球系统科学
- 气候科学
背景情况:
- 全球变化对生态系统的压力通过改变大气交换影响了人类的基本服务和未来的气候轨迹.
- 地球系统模型 (ESM) 是模拟生态系统和生物地化学循环的重要工具,为气候研究提供了统一的框架.
研究的目的:
- 将气候预测科学扩展到更全面的地球系统预测.
- 将生物圈和资源动态纳入预测模型.
- 能够评估社会相关的影响,如野火风险,息地丧失和资源产量.
主要方法:
- 使用地球系统模型 (ESM) 模拟陆地和海洋生态系统.
- 在ESM框架内整合生物地化学循环.
- 分析生态系统和大气之间的能量和质量交换.
主要成果:
- 欧洲气候机制促进了气候过程,脆弱性,影响,适应和减缓的研究.
- 模型可以将物理气候状态转换为社会相关的量.
- 该框架支持预测野火风险,息地丧失,水资源供应以及农作物,渔业和木材产量.
结论:
- 包括生物圈在内的地球系统预测对于理解和管理全球变化至关重要.
- 通过ESM,将生态研究与气候科学和社会需求联系起来.
- 推进ESM是应对复杂环境挑战和确保可持续资源管理的关键.
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