除了在能源出口地区,除了在燃料补贴取消后的有限减排
Jessica Jewell1,2, David McCollum1,3, Johannes Emmerling4,5
1Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
Nature
|February 9, 2018
概括
取消化石燃料补贴对全球能源需求和二氧化碳排放的影响惊人. 这种政策变化不太可能在2030年之前大幅提升可再生能源的使用或实现气候目标.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学
- 减缓气候变化
- 能源政策
背景情况:
- 化石燃料的补贴普遍存在,鼓励低效的能源使用,阻碍可再生能源的发展.
- 包括G20国家在内的各国政府已承诺逐步取消这些补贴,
- 全球取消补贴对减缓气候变化的实际影响仍在很大程度上未被研究.
研究的目的:
- 系统评估废除化石燃料补贴对能源需求,二氧化碳排放和采用可再生能源的全球影响.
- 量化取消补贴对稳定温室气体度所需的碳定价的影响.
- 将减排成果与现有气候承诺进行比较,例如"巴黎协定".
主要方法:
- 利用能源经济模型模拟全球消除化石燃料补贴的影响.
- 分析了不同情景下的影响,包括低油价和不同的区域经济状况.
- 将预计的减排量与国家气候承诺进行比较,并评估对弱势群体的影响.
主要成果:
- 全球补贴的取消将在2030年之前对能源需求和二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放产生有限的影响.
- 在低油价下, 稳定温室气体的碳价格只有2-12%.
- 通过取消补贴减少的排放量通常低于"巴黎协定"承诺,由于燃料转换,某些地区的排放量可能会增加.
结论:
- 仅仅逐步取消化石燃料补贴不足以显著缓解气候变化或实现全球气候目标.
- 消除补贴的有效性因地区而异,最高的二氧化碳排放减少在高收入,能源出口国家.
- 虽然消除补贴可能会影响高收入地区贫困线以下的人数较少,但其整体气候影响较小.
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