持续的气候变暖导致海洋生物生产率下降
J Keith Moore1, Weiwei Fu1, Francois Primeau2
1Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA. jkmoore@uci.edu weiweif@uci.edu.
概括
气候变化可能会抑制海洋生态系统1000年. 扩展模拟显示,温室气体排放导致营养物质的转移,降低了全球海洋生产力和渔业产量.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 海洋学
- 生物地质化学
背景情况:
- 到2100年的气候变化预测可能忽略了关键的物理-生物化学反.
- 累积的变暖效应可能会引发长期的生态系统变化.
研究的目的:
- 研究2100年以后气候变化对海洋生态系统的影响.
- 分析物理-生物化学反对海洋生产力和营养循环的影响.
主要方法:
- 一个连接到2300年的气候模拟.
- 分析风力模式的变化,海洋温度,海冰和营养物质的分布.
- 模拟初级生产,碳出口和渔业产量.
主要成果:
- 西风加剧并向极移动,水面变暖,海冰消失.
- 导致全球营养物质重新分配.
- 到2300年,海洋初级生产 (24%) 和碳出口 (41%) 显著下降.
- 全球渔业产量下降超过20%,北大西洋下降近60%.
结论:
- 持续高温室气体排放可能会抑制海洋生物的生产力.
- 在持续变暖下,物理-生物化学反显著改变了海洋生态系统.
- 未来的气候变化对海洋食物网和全球渔业构成重大风险.
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