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"巴黎协定"所规定的1.5°C的气候变化
Sonia I Seneviratne1, Joeri Rogelj2,3,4,5, Roland Séférian6
1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. sonia.seneviratne@ethz.ch.
Nature
|June 8, 2018
概括
将全球变暖限制在1.5°C可能会导致区域气候变化. 即使有了"巴黎协定"政策,危险的极端气候仍然对生态系统和社会构成风险.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 环境科学
- 全球政策分析
背景情况:
- 巴黎协定旨在将全球变暖限制在工业化前的1.5°C以上.
- 在1.5°C的情景下预测的区域气候结果尚不清楚.
- 了解这些区域差异对于有效的气候行动至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查与1.5°C更热的世界相关的不同区域气候结果.
- 分析气候变化速度,地点和社会因素之间的相互作用.
- 评估极端温度的残留风险及其影响.
主要方法:
- 使用气候模型模拟各种1.5°C的轨迹.
- 整合社会经济因素,包括缓解和适应能力.
- 评估区域对预测气候变化的脆弱性.
主要成果:
- 走向1.5°C的轨迹显示出气候影响的区域差异.
- 气候变化的速度和地点与社会脆弱性相互作用.
- 即使有1.5°C的政策,全球气温和地区极端气候的风险仍然存在.
结论:
- 实现1.5°C的目标并不能保证全球气候的统一效益.
- 气候变化影响的区域差异需要量身定制的适应和减缓战略.
- 需要持续保持警,以管理对生态系统和社会的剩余风险.
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