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选择南极洲的未来
S R Rintoul1,2,3, S L Chown4, R M DeConto5
1CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. Steve.Rintoul@csiro.au.
Nature
|June 15, 2018
概括
未来南极和南洋的变化取决于立即的气候行动. 没有控制的排放会造成严重影响,而有决心的政策可以减缓环境变化.
科学领域:
- 气候科学
- 极地研究
- 海洋学
背景情况:
- 南极和南洋是全球气候系统的关键组成部分.
- 目前的环境政策可能不足以缓解未来的气候变化影响.
研究的目的:
- 探索2070年南极洲和南洋的两种可能的未来情景.
- 突出不同气候政策路径的后果.
主要方法:
- 基于未来气候轨迹的两种对比叙述的发展.
- 从2070年开始进行回顾性分析.
主要成果:
- 情景1 (未受控制的排放):显著的变暖,南极和南洋的广泛环境影响,以及全球影响.
- 方案2 (雄心勃勃的行动):由于人为压力下降,南极地区的环境变化速度放缓.
结论:
- 未来10年对南极洲未来的环境发展轨迹至关重要.
- 迫切和雄心勃勃的气候政策是减轻严重的全球影响的必要条件.
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