珊瑚礁增长能力的损失,以追踪未来的海平面上升
Chris T Perry1, Lorenzo Alvarez-Filip2, Nicholas A J Graham3
1Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. c.perry@exeter.ac.uk.
Nature
|June 16, 2018
概括
由于海平面上升, 珊瑚礁面临沉没. 大多数珊瑚礁缺乏增长潜力以跟上预计的SLR,特别是在高排放场景下,需要紧急的气候和生态行动.
科学领域:
- 海洋生物学
- 气候科学
- 地质学
背景情况:
- 海平面上升威胁着珊瑚礁,
- 生态退化限制了抵消SLR所需的垂直珊瑚礁生长.
- 目前的预测缺乏当地珊瑚礁增长率与SLR之间的相互作用数据.
研究的目的:
- 评估大西洋和印度洋热带地区200多个珊瑚礁的垂直生长潜力.
- 根据各种代表性度路径 (RCP) 的情况,将珊瑚礁增长率与最近和预测的SLR进行比较.
- 确定珊瑚覆盖所需的值,以追踪SLR并避免沉没.
主要方法:
- 计算了200多个珊瑚礁的垂直积累潜力.
- 与不同RCP场景的观测和预测SLR数据进行了对比.
- 分析了珊瑚覆盖和珊瑚礁容量之间的关系,
主要成果:
- 许多珊瑚礁目前呈现接近近期SLR趋势的增长率.
- 很少有珊瑚礁可以在RCP4.5下追踪预测的SLR,而不会有显著的生态恢复.
- 根据RCP8.5,预计到2100年大多数珊瑚礁的平均水深将增加0.5米以上.
- 对于追踪SLR而言, 珊瑚的高覆盖面至关重要,
结论:
- 应急缓解气候变化,SLR和生态退化至关重要.
- 预计到2100年, 大范围的珊瑚礁将会淹没.
- 持续的生态恢复和减少排放对于珊瑚礁的生存至关重要.
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