来自热年代学后代侵蚀历史的空间相关性偏差
Taylor F Schildgen1,2, Pieter A van der Beek3, Hugh D Sinclair4
1GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, Germany. tschild@gfz-potsdam.de.
Nature
|July 6, 2018
概括
由于气候变化,全球侵蚀率可能没有增加. 热年代学数据的分析表明空间偏差,而不是全球气候影响,解释了许多报道的侵蚀加速.
科学领域:
- 地球科学
- 地形学
- 气候科学
背景情况:
- 地球表面侵蚀率与全球气候变化之间的联系是地球科学中一个长期存在的问题.
- 根据沉积率,之前的研究表明,由于气候变冷,代后期侵蚀增加.
- 相反的证据表明侵蚀率稳定,明显增加归因于数据偏差和保存问题.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用热年代学数据,调查山地景观中已报道的代晚期加速侵蚀.
- 为了确定全球气候变化, 而不是其他因素, 驱动观察到的侵蚀率的增加.
- 评估全球范围内侵蚀率评估的热年代学数据的分辨率.
主要方法:
- 来自30个地点的热年代学数据分析报告了代晚期的侵蚀.
- 检查热年代学数据中的潜在偏差,包括空间相关性和平均化方法.
- 区分气候驱动的侵蚀,构造的影响和数据遗迹.
主要成果:
- 在30个分析地点中的23个,报告的侵蚀增加归因于空间相关偏差,而不是时间变化.
- 四个地点显示与构造边界条件变化相关的增加.
- 只有三个地点表现出气候诱导的加速, 具体来自局部的冰川谷切口.
结论:
- 目前的热年代学数据不足以证实晚代气候变化对侵蚀率的全球影响.
- 空间相关性偏差是解释全球侵蚀趋势的热年代学数据的一个重要问题.
- 未来的研究应该将当地发现与特定地点的细节综合起来, 以更好地了解全球侵蚀驱动因素.
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