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全球枪支死亡率,1990年至2016年
, Mohsen Naghavi1, Laurie B Marczak1
1Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle.
JAMA
|September 1, 2018
在PubMed 上查看摘要
概括
全球枪支死亡人数在2016年达到251,000人,其中杀人案占多数. 虽然整体枪支伤害死亡率有所下降,但各个国家和人口结构仍然存在显著差异,这凸显了有针对性的预防政策的必要性.
科学领域:
- 全球健康
- 流行病学
- 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 了解全球枪支死亡率对于制定有效预防策略至关重要.
- 之前对枪支伤害死亡的估计有所不同,因此需要更新全球数据.
- 枪支的使用和拥有被认为是影响死亡率的重要因素.
研究的目的:
- 估计1990年至2016年全球195个国家和地区的枪支伤害死亡人数.
- 分析枪支死亡的趋势, 包括谋杀,自杀和意外死亡.
- 调查枪支可用性与枪支相关死亡率之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 使用了13812个位置年份的非识别的聚合重要登记数据.
- 根据年龄,性别,年龄和地点分层的死亡率和估计值.
- 使用修订后的代理衡量, 结合枪支自杀比例和人均枪支所有权来评估枪支准入.
主要成果:
- 据估计,2016年全球发生了251,000 (95%UI,195,000-276,000) 枪支伤害死亡,高于1990年的209,000.
- 在2016年,杀人占枪支死亡的多数 (64.0%),其次是自杀 (27.0%) 和无意死亡 (9.0%).
- 虽然全球枪支自杀率每年下降1.6%,但124个国家的自杀率稳定或增加;全球枪支杀人率没有显著下降. 更高的枪支可用性与枪支自杀和杀人率的增加有关 (R2=0.21和R2=0.35,分别).
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