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全球沿海湿地对海平面上升的未来反应
Mark Schuerch1,2, Tom Spencer3, Stijn Temmerman4
1Lincoln Centre for Water and Planetary Health, School of Geography, University of Lincoln, Lincoln, UK. mschuerch@lincoln.ac.uk.
Nature
|September 14, 2018
概括
沿海湿地可以增加海平面的面积,如果它们有足够的积空间. 通过以自然为基础的解决方案创造更多的住宿空间可以防止严重的湿地损失.
科学领域:
- 环境科学
- 气候变化 生态
- 沿海地形学
背景情况:
- 全球预测显示,由于海平面上升,沿海湿地大量丧失,威胁生物多样性和生态系统服务.
- 之前的模型往往忽略了重要的地形学和社会经济反.
- 沿海湿地对加速海平面上升的净反应仍然存在不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个综合的全球模型,评估海平面上升和人为压力的沿海湿地变化.
- 将沉积物和住宿空间纳入全球沿海湿地预测.
- 评估到2100年湿地增长与损失的可能性.
主要方法:
- 使用综合全球建模方法.
- 量化了沿海湿地的垂直积累潜力.
- 评估住宿空间的可用性 (垂直和横向沉积区).
- 海平面上升和沿海占用对湿地地区的影响
主要成果:
- 全球沿海湿地面积可能会增加60%,如果有足够的容纳空间并保持沉积物供应.
- 预计到2100年全球沿海湿地面积的损失将在0%至30%之间,如果没有额外的住宿空间.
- 湿地适应性主要由住宿空间驱动,受到沿海基础设施发展的重大影响.
结论:
- 大规模的沿海湿地丧失并不是海平面上升的必然结果.
- 通过以自然为基础的解决方案创造额外的住宿空间对于沿海湿地保护至关重要.
- 谨慎的沿海管理和适应策略可以提高湿地对气候变化的适应力.
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