城市化和湿度影响了美国城市流感疫情的严重程度
Benjamin D Dalziel1,2, Stephen Kissler3, Julia R Gog3
1Department of Integrative Biology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA. benjamin.dalziel@oregonstate.edu.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|October 6, 2018
概括
城市的大小和人口结构预测流感流行模式. 较大城市的疫情更为扩散,这表明城市中心与较小城市不同地影响传播动态和群体免疫力.
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 公共卫生
- 数学模型
背景情况:
- 由于气候和病毒的演变,每年流感疫情的强度会有所变化.
- 城市间流感发病率的显著空间差异仍然无法解释.
- 了解这些空间模式对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 研究城市人口规模和结构对流感流行病模式的影响.
- 确定流感发病率的不明空间变化的驱动因素.
- 探索城市环境如何改变流感传播动态.
主要方法:
- 美国603个城市每周流感发病率数据的分析.
- 统计建模以与人口数量和人口密度相关联.
- 基于城市级数据的基础传输潜力的估计.
主要成果:
- 较小城市的流感流行时间较短,
- 较大的城市在整个季节都有更广泛的流感发病率.
- 基础传播潜力与人口规模和密度组织具有正相关性.
- 城市中心对气候强迫的反应有所减少.
结论:
- 人口规模和结构是城市级流感流行动态的关键预测因素.
- 在气候高峰期之外,大都市地区可能存在流感传播链.
- 城市环境重塑群体免疫的时空动态,影响流行病控制策略.
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