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对主要热带气旋事件的人类影响
Christina M Patricola1, Michael F Wehner2
1Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA. cmpatricola@lbl.gov.
Nature
|November 16, 2018
概括
气候变化增加了主要风的降雨量, 未来的气候变暖将加剧大部分热带气旋的风力和降雨量,
科学领域:
- 大气科学
- 气候科学
- 天气学
背景情况:
- 由于自然变化和有限的观测数据,气候变化对热带气旋统计的影响缺乏共识.
- 未来的热带气旋预测是不确定的,通常依赖于难以直接表示热带气旋的粗略分辨率气候模型.
研究的目的:
- 研究近期破坏性热带气旋在工业化前和未来的气候条件下如何变化.
- 通过先进的气候模型评估气候变化对热带气旋强度和降雨的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用允许对流的区域气候模型模拟进行高分辨率分析.
- 在不同的气候场景下研究了卡特里娜,伊尔玛和玛丽亚等特定的历史事件.
- 进行了额外的模拟,以评估对流参数化带来的不确定性.
主要成果:
- 与工业化前的情况相比,气候变化增加了卡特里娜,伊尔玛和玛丽亚风的降雨量,但风速的强度保持不变.
- 预计未来的人为变暖将大大增加全球研究的大多数强烈热带气旋的风速和降雨量.
- 热带气旋强度和降雨量变化的预测信号中引入了最小的不确定性.
结论:
- 目前的气候变化已经影响了热带气旋降雨,未来的变暖预计将大大加剧风和降雨.
- 高分辨率的区域气候模型提供可靠的预测,增加了对具有足够精细分辨率和参数化对流的全球模型预测的信心.
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