20世纪未知冰川对海平面上升的贡献
David Parkes1,2, Ben Marzeion3
1Institute of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria. david.parkes.88@gmail.com.
Nature
|November 23, 2018
概括
在库存中缺少的小冰川对20世纪全球平均海平面上升 (GMSLR) 作出了重大贡献. 这些未知冰川的记账有助于在不引发新的物理过程的情况下完成GMSLR预算.
科学领域:
- 冰川学
- 气候科学
- 海洋学
背景情况:
- 20世纪全球平均海平面上升 (GMSLR) 归因于冰川融化,热膨胀和水储量变化.
- 目前的GMSLR估计往往低于观察到的水平,这表明未计入的贡献.
- 冰川库存通常低于较小的冰川,可能导致低估其影响.
研究的目的:
- 量化失踪和消失的冰川对历史GMSLR的贡献.
- 评估这些未知冰川是否可以解释GMSLR预算的差异.
- 确定是否需要新的物理过程来解释历史上的海平面上升.
主要方法:
- 使用区域分析和理论缩放关系来估计未包括在库存中的小冰川的数量.
- 从这些缺失的冰川的估计质量损失计算出海平等值 (SLE).
- 估计了1901年存在但到2015年完全融化的冰川的SLE贡献.
主要成果:
- 失踪的冰川在1901年至2015年间贡献了大约12.3至42.7毫米的SLE.
- 消失的冰川在同一时期增加了4.4至5.3毫米的冰川流量.
- 没有绘制地图的冰川 (16.748.0毫米) 的总贡献与GMSLR预算差异一致.
结论:
- 不知名的冰川是关闭GMSLR历史预算的一个重要因素.
- 这些冰川的贡献平均每年为0.170.53毫米,这解释了0.5毫米/年差异的大部分.
- 没有发现的物理过程是不必要的解释历史海平面上升,因为未被绘制的冰川占缺口.
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